If you’ve been wondering, “Is the Austin market finally normal again?” January makes it a little clearer.
We’re not in the chaotic, anything-goes market from a few years ago. We’re also not in a crash. What we’re seeing is a selective market with options. Homes that feel like a true value (price, condition, location) still move, and everything else is getting negotiated. If you’ve toured a few homes lately and thought, “Wait, why is this still priced like 2022?” you’re not imagining it.
The quick snapshot (City of Austin, single-family)
These are city-wide numbers for single-family homes. Your zip code can behave very differently.
Here’s what Compass is showing for January:
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383 homes sold, down 13.3% year over year (fewer closings, slower pace)
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Median price: $590,000, up 4.3% year over year (prices are holding more than people expect)
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Average price: $778,033, up 0.8%
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Active listings: 1,999 with 5.22 months of supply (getting closer to “balanced market” territory)
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Median days on market: 57 (a good reminder that most homes do not sell quickly right now)
The real story: inventory is giving buyers leverage, but only on the right listings
One of the loudest themes in this report is price flexibility:
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54% of active listings have had at least one price reduction
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The average reduction is about 9%
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Homes are closing at about 90.81% of original list price
Translation: negotiating is expected. The data supports it, especially on listings that have been sitting.
What this means for Austin home buyers
If you’re buying this year, your best opportunities are usually on homes that are overpriced, stale, or already reduced.
How buyers can use this immediately:
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If a home has been listed 30+ days, you often have more room to negotiate because the market is already telling you demand is softer at that price.
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Don’t just ask, “What’s the list price?” Ask, “What’s the price history, and how long has it been sitting?”
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When you’re writing an offer, your strongest leverage is usually a smart mix of price, concessions, and repair credits. We’ll choose the combo that's in your best interest without unnecessarily weakening the offer.
One important twist
Fresh, well-priced homes that show beautifully can still move fast. Compass calls out that the “shiny penny” listings are the ones getting the action. So yes, you have leverage, but you still want a plan for the homes that check every box, because those can attract multiple buyers quickly.
For sellers: the market is less forgiving of “testing the waters”
Compass notes an 18% increase in expired listings, with 864 homes expiring in January.
That’s the market sending a message: pricing and presentation matter more than ever when buyers have choices.
What this means for Austin home sellers
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Pricing high “just to see” can lead to price drops, longer days on market, and a listing that starts to feel stale.
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Condition and presentation matter more than they used to. Buyers are comparing your home to a lot of options, and they act like it.
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If you do reduce later, Compass notes homes often go under contract around 35 days after the drop. That delay can cost you time, momentum, and sometimes net proceeds.
What tends to win right now
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Launching with a price that matches today’s market, not last year’s hope.
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Making the home feel move-in ready, even if it’s not brand-new.
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A strong go-to-market plan early, especially when new listings surge and buyers have plenty to compare.
Price ranges are behaving very differently (this part matters a lot)
Months of supply is not one thing across the board. Some price points are tighter and more competitive, others are stacked with options.
In the report:
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$500k to $599k: about 8.0 months of supply (buyers often have real leverage here)
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$700k to $799k: about 3.8 months (tighter, more competitive)
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$1.4M+: about 7.8 months (more supply, sellers generally need patience and precision)
How to use this
Buyers: If you’re shopping in a higher-supply bracket, we can usually be more assertive on price and terms. In a tighter bracket, we’ll go in cleaner and faster, with a strategy that matches the competition.
Sellers: Your competition set is your price bracket. We price and prep based on what buyers are choosing from in your exact tier, not just broad Austin headlines.
Demand is still there, it’s just more selective
Even with fewer new listings than last year (Compass shows 797 new listings, down 15.4%), buyer activity held up: 617 homes went under contract, up 6.9%.
So yes, people are buying. They’re just being choosy. They’re looking for value, and they’re willing to wait for it.
Where activity was strongest (zip codes with the most 2025 sales)
Compass highlights the hottest zip codes by number of single-family sales in 2025, including:
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78745 and 78748 (South Austin volume leaders)
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78738 (Bee Cave and Lakeway area pull)
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78744 (Southeast Austin as a major “stay in the city” value option)
If you’re buying or selling in one of these areas, it’s worth zooming in. “Austin” is not one market, and strategy changes fast from zip code to zip code.
A simple game plan, depending on where you are
If you’re buying in 2026:
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Focus your negotiation energy on homes that are stale, overpriced, or already reduced.
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Use the inventory to your advantage. Compare options, and don’t feel pressured to settle too early.
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Move quickly when the right home is priced well and shows beautifully, because those listings still get attention.
If you’re selling in 2026:
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Price like you mean it from day one, because the market has a long memory now.
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Prep and presentation matter more than ever, buyers have options and they act like it.
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If you want top dollar, we’ll position your home to earn it through strategy, not wishful pricing.
Work with us
Want the short version for your exact situation? We’ll pull comps, recent reductions, and buyer activity for your neighborhood, then map out a plan that fits your timeline, not ours. Reach out to get started.
Want a copy of the report? Get it here.
Disclaimer: This post is for general informational purposes only and reflects market data and commentary from third-party sources (including Compass) as of January 2026. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Real estate market conditions can change quickly and vary significantly by neighborhood, zip code, property condition, and pricing strategy. This is not legal, tax, or financial advice. Always verify property-specific details and consult appropriate professionals for your situation. Dueñas Realty Group is a team at Compass RE Texas, LLC. Equal Housing Opportunity.
